Aurora, CO 4Q 2007 Real Estate Price Trends

Recap of Fourth Quarter 2007 Home Price Performance
By Lon Welsh and Terry Wenze, Your Castle Real Estate.

The average home price in Metro Denver increased +2% in the full year 2005 to the full year 2006, from $309,000 to $317,000. Comparing 2006 to 2007, the average home price across the metro dropped 2%, from $311,000. The average price of a foreclosure or short sale dropped in that time period -3% to $188,000. The average price of a non-distress sale increased 5% to $370,000. Sales volume over the last twelve months is off -4% for DSF/ASF. Foreclosure and short sale volume is up +31%; non-distress seller volume is off 20%. If you handle a lot of listing and the market seems slow, this is likely the reason why.

Some areas did better than others. The attached chart shows different neighborhoods in Aurora. Email me if you need a bigger picture at lonwelsh@yourcastle.org. Each region has the neighborhood’s name and the percentage of sales in the last twelve months that were either short sales or bank-owned properties. The second line has the price change the twelve months from 2006 vs. 2007. Next, you’ll see the average home price in the last twelve months and the number of homes that were sold.

There had to be at least fifteen sales in the last year for an area to be included. The numbers are more reliable in areas where there were more sales. For example, Eastridge had 495 sales –the numbers are likely to be very reliable. In Tollgate West, with only 54 sales, the numbers are more likely directional.

Less expensive areas generally didn’t do as well. For example, Aurora Heights (average home price $95K) saw a 23% drop in prices. More expensive areas generally did better. For example, Hampden (average home price $321,000) was up 6%. 82% of the sales in the Eastridge area were related to foreclosures, where in Hampden, only 13% were foreclosures. There’s a pretty strong relationship; where home prices are less expensive, there is more of a foreclosure problem, and that tends to drag down the prices.


Source: Your Castle Real Estate analysis, MLS data

Broomfield, Westminster, and Northglenn Colorado - Real Estate Trends 4Q 2007

Broomfield, Westminster, and Northglenn Colorado - Real Estate Trends 4Q 2007
By Charles Roberts and Lon Welsh, Your Castle Real Estate.

The average home price in Metro Denver increased +2% in the full year 2005 to the full year 2006, from $309,000 to $317,000. Comparing 2006 to 2007, the average home price across the metro dropped 2%, from $311,000. The average price of a foreclosure or short sale dropped in that time period -3% to $188,000. The average price of a non-distress sale increased 5% to $370,000. Sales volume over the last twelve months is off -4% for DSF/ASF. Foreclosure and short sale volume is up +31%; non-distress seller volume is off 20%.

Some areas did better than others. The attached chart shows different neighborhoods in North Metro Denver (email me for a bigger map at lonwelsh@yourcastle.org). Each region has the neighborhood’s name and the percentage of sales in the last twelve months that were either short sales or bank-owned properties. The second line has the price change the twelve months from 2006 vs. 2007. Next, you’ll see the average home price in the last twelve months and the number of homes that were sold.

There had to be at least twenty sales in the last year for an area to be included. The numbers are more reliable in areas where there were more sales. In some neighborhoods you’ll see dramatic price declines, largely due to the influence of a lot of bank foreclosures. This mainly occurs in less expensive neighborhoods, where the average home price is under $200K. In more expensive areas, a change in the mix of the types of homes sold can dramatically change the price increase or decrease. Also be aware that there are often multiple builders and/or subdivisions in a given “neighborhood”. These stats are a lot more interesting than reporting on the average of the entire metro, but you still have to take some care in how they are interpreted!

Source: Your Castle Real Estate analysis, MLS data

Thornton, Commerce City and Brighton Colorado - Real Estate Trends

Recap of Fourth Quarter 2007 Home Price Performance

Thornton, Commerce City and Brighton Colorado - Real Estate Trends
By Charles Roberts and Lon Welsh, Your Castle Real Estate.

The average home price in Metro Denver increased +2% in the full year 2005 to the full year 2006, from $309,000 to $317,000. Comparing 2006 to 2007, the average home price across the metro dropped 2%, from $311,000. The average price of a foreclosure or short sale dropped in that time period -3% to $188,000. The average price of a non-distress sale increased 5% to $370,000. Sales volume over the last twelve months is off -4% for DSF/ASF. Foreclosure and short sale volume is up +31%; non-distress seller volume is off 20%. If you handle a lot of listing and the market seems slow, this is likely the reason why.

Some areas did better than others. The attached chart shows different neighborhoods in North Metro Denver (email me at lonwelsh@yourcastle.org for a larger map). Each region has the neighborhood’s name and the percentage of sales in the last twelve months that were either short sales or bank-owned properties. The second line has the price change the twelve months from 2006 vs. 2007. Next, you’ll see the average home price in the last twelve months and the number of homes that were sold.

There had to be at least twenty sales in the last year for an area to be included. The numbers are more reliable in areas where there were more sales. In some neighborhoods you’ll see dramatic price declines, largely due to the influence of a lot of bank foreclosures. This mainly occurs in less expensive neighborhoods, where the average home price is under $200K. In more expensive areas, a change in the mix of the types of homes sold can dramatically change the price increase or decrease. Also be aware that there are often multiple builders and/or subdivisions in a given “neighborhood”. These stats are a lot more interesting than reporting on the average of the entire metro, but you still have to take some care in how they are interpreted!

Source: Your Castle Real Estate analysis, MLS data

Denver, CO Fourth Quarter 2007 Home Price Performance

Recap of Denver Fourth Quarter 2007 Home Price Performance
The average home price in Metro Denver increased +2% in the full year 2005 to the full year 2006, from $309,000 to $317,000.

Comparing 2006 to 2007, the average home price across the metro dropped 2%, from $311,000. The average price of a foreclosure or short sale dropped in that time period -3% to $188,000. The average price of a non-distress sale increased 5% to $370,000. Sales volume over the last twelve months is off -4% for DSF/ASF. Foreclosure and short sale volume is up +31%; non-distress seller volume is off 20%. If you handle a lot of listing and the market seems slow, this is likely the reason why.

Some areas did better than others. The attached chart shows different neighborhoods in Denver County (email me for a larger version). Each region has the neighborhood’s name and the percentage of sales in the last twelve months that were either short sales or bank-owned properties. The second line has the price change the twelve months from 2006 vs. 2007. Next, you’ll see the average home price in the last twelve months and the number of homes that were sold.

There had to be at least fifteen sales in the last year for an area to be included. The numbers are more reliable in areas where there were more sales. For example, Wash Park West had 196 sales –the numbers are likely to be very reliable. In Lincoln Park, with only 41 sales, the numbers are more likely directional.

Less expensive areas generally didn’t do as well. For example, Westwood (average home price $100K) saw a 20% drop in prices. More expensive areas generally did better. For example, Hilltop (average home price $961,000) was up 15%. 81% of the sales in the Westwood area were related to foreclosures, where in Hilltop, only 11% were foreclosures (up from 9% last quarter). There’s a pretty strong relationship; where home prices are less expensive, there is more of a foreclosure problem, and that tends to drag down the prices. Another factor driving home price appreciation in some upscale neighborhoods are re-sales of recently scraped properties, where a small, run down $300,000 home is replaced with a new home at $1,000,000.

Source: Your Castle Real Estate analysis, MLS data